June 2025: Mid-Year Housing Progress Update

MANY PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE…Still a long way to go

Halfway through the year, Marin has a large increase in the number of housing units in process, but we’re still very far from resolving our housing crisis. MEHC thanks everyone who has attended a meeting, sent an email, supported a project, or passed along housing news. Your advocacy has made and is making a difference. Please keep sending your emails, and showing up for housing.

An encouraging 7,344 units in the pipeline

Our project pipeline has increased, but not enough to meet our housing goal of 1,800 housing units permitted each year. State housing laws and newly enacted housing elements are resulting in more proposed projects, but the majority of these units in the pipeline will probably not be built.

The journey from project conception to completion is fraught. Most public attention focuses on the project approval (entitlement or planning process). During project approval, the project is determined to meet the zoning code, public meetings are held, and environmental review is completed, if necessary. Much recent state legislation encouraging housing production has focused on the entitlement step. After the project is approved, the developer must finalize financing and create construction plans, which are required to obtain building permits.

"Only about 1/3 of projects in the pipeline ever get built" graphic.

Obtaining financing is particularly challenging right now, given the rising cost of construction. Projects face additional challenges under the Trump administration, with cuts in Federal funding, the imposition of tariffs and indiscriminate deportations of laborers and construction workers.

Many, many projects stall during the stages from proposed to permitted. In recent years, only 30% of proposed housing units in Marin have been completed.

The three steps for housing to get built and completed: Proposed, approved, permitted.

A look at our growing, yet insufficient, housing pipeline

Below you will find data for the active projects in Marin that MEHC is tracking. We do our best to keep all information up-to-date. Please email us at info@callmarinhome.org if you need more current information on a project.

Multi-family housing pipeline in marin (housing units) data table

Don’t forget that only about 30% of proposed projects ever get built.

NOTE: Visibility into permitted projects is limited. Several projects are close to getting permits, and we may have missed some. This table only counts incremental new units, and does not include individual ADU or single family homes projects.

But what about affordability?

The good news is that a relatively high proportion – about 1/3 – of these in-the-pipeline units are considered “affordable.” Many would prefer that most or all these units were in the affordable category, but affordable housing requires subsidies. We need far more funding of affordable housing in order to increase the proportion of affordable units built.

But market rate units help also. About 90% of apartments offered for rent in Marin are between $2,000 and $5,800. New market rate apartments can be expected to be near the high end of this range.

Housing in the pipeline that’s AFFORDABLE

Affordable housing in the pipeline (housing units) data table

So – what does “affordable” housing really mean?

This is a simple question with a complicated answer, as the term “affordable” is used differently in different contexts. In terms of public policy, housing costs are considered to be “affordable” when a household pays no more than 30% of its gross income on rent or mortgage. Households that pay more than 30% are considered “cost burdened.” This definition of “affordable” refers solely to housing costs relative to income, and has nothing to do with the housing itself.

Housing that is “affordable” in and of itself refers to deed-restricted housing that can only be rented or sold to individuals who meet specific income requirements, that are tied to an area’s Average Median Income (AMI). Because of the high cost of living and housing in Marin County in 2025, for a 4-person household, the Average Median Income is a whopping $185,700.

Here are the thresholds that are used to correlate income levels with housing costs for a family of 4 in Marin in 2025:

30% AMI – Extremely low-income ($55,710)
50% AMI – Very low-income ($92,850)
70% AMI – Low-income ($129,990)
100% AMI – Median income ($185,700)
120% AMI – Moderate income ($222,924)

That means that a family of four earning $92,850 a year qualifies as Very Low Income. An affordable rent for this family would be $2,325/month. Affordable Housing projects offer housing whose costs are targeted at these various income levels, primarily the low income level and below, although many multi-family housing projects include a mix of affordability levels.

The cost of housing continues to force lower-income individuals out of Marin, causing our Area Median Income to keep rising.

"There are ZERO housing options for households earning $65,000/year or less. These households are at tremendous risk of becoming homeless -- or being forced out of Marin -- if they lose their housing" quote graphic.

Individuals who earn $100,000 now qualify for affordable housing in Marin! Many residents in Marin do not earn enough to afford even “extremely low-income” affordable housing. Other programs can help, primarily Section 8 vouchers which subsidize rents for extremely low income individuals. However, there are far too few Section 8 vouchers to meet our needs and the waiting list, and the Trump administration is planning to cut these further.

The graphics below show the disconnect between incomes and cost of housing, and how that impacts Marin’s housing market. HOUSEHOLDS AND HOUSING OPTIONS BY ANNUAL HOUSING INCOME shows the distribution of available housing options across incomes. If you make less than $200,000 in annual income, very few housing options are available to you. In a healthy housing market, we’d have 30% more rental units and 10X as much housing available to purchase in the $146-$200K range. Note, there are ZERO housing options for households that make $65,000/year or less. These households are at tremendous risk of becoming homeless or being forced out of Marin if they lose their housing.

How our housing options correlate with household income

What jobs pay how much, and is there ANY PLACE you can afford to live?
This graphic shows AFFORDABILITY LEVELS, which are calculated by family or household size in comparison to the INCOMES FOR VARIOUS JOBS in Marin. Even professionals with advanced degrees and many years of experience are eligible for affordable housing, and struggle to find housing that meets their needs in our very constrained and expensive housing market. For example, a Whole Foods grocery stocker earns less than $40,00/year which is at the Very Low Income level. That person’s “affordable rent” would be about $1100/month. As we see in the table above, there are NO housing options for that person, nor for ANY household making less than $65,000/year. For additional information, see INCOMES AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN MARIN 2024, prepared by the County.

What’s next?
While the current pipeline isn’t enough, it is a start. Costs have risen, and we are in an uncertain economic environment. The Trump Administration plans to cut Section 8 vouchers and other Federal funding sources. Certainly many factors are outside of our control. But Marinites can work together to address this problem.

Affordable housing is expensive to build, so we don’t build much of it. Less than 5% of California’s housing stock is deed-restricted affordable housing. Marin has a number of affordable projects in the pipeline and we should support all efforts to ensure these projects happen. But they will not be enough by themselves.

Possibly every project in the pipeline has made use of at least one of California’s streamlining laws. These laws require that some housing units in any project are designated affordable. Almost 700 affordable units in the pipeline are the result of these streamlining programs. There is often pressure to increase the number of affordable units in these projects, but affordable units are built and financed without any public subsidy; the market rate units must provide the subsidy. So an increased number of affordable units can make an entire project financially infeasible. A 25% affordable requirement might sound good, but 25% of 0 units is 0.

And, it is under-appreciated how badly we need these market rate units. Market rate apartments in Marin County almost exclusively serve median, moderate and barely above moderate-income families. The households that rent these new market rate units are overwhelmingly households with high-paying jobs that do not have the assets to become homeowners in Marin. Without new market rate units, these households either forgo living in Marin (making it very challenging to recruit experienced teachers or young doctors or dentists to work here), or they replace the lower income renters who cannot keep up with rent increases.

We will be well on our way if we can change our history and get the projects in our pipeline built.

R E S O U R C E S
Explore the broad library of resources on our website including news, policy statements, advocacy, upcoming meetings, fact sheets and backgrounders on affordable housing – and the lack of it – in Marin. If you have any questions or suggestions, contact us here>>